Saturday, January 2, 2010

Game 16 Scouting Report

GIANTS (8-7) vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-4)

THE TEAMS: Tom Coughlin talked a lot about regaining pride and respect after last week's quit-job against the Panthers. With nothing to play for except that, it's questionable how much even a victory can restore. Coughlin dismissed the notion of allowing Eli Manning to get an early start on rehabbing his troublesome right foot, repeating his stated goal to win every game possible. The Vikings are a team in turmoil, with Brett Favre arguing with head coach Brad Childress and a once-potent offense floundering the last four games. They have lost three of their last four, averaging 21 points per game in the process, as opposed to their 10-1 start during which the offense averaged 31.1 points per game. The Vikings have plenty to play for even though Monday's loss to the Bears cost them a shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They're still looking for the second-seed bye, which means they'll play this one as if their season depended on it.

THE HISTORY: The Giants trail the regular-season series 12-8, including last season's 20-19 loss when the Giants went out there in the finale. Including the 2000 NFC Championship game, they have played in nine of the last 10 seasons, with the Vikings winning six of those.

THE INJURIES: Giants -- T Kareem McKenzie (knee), CB Corey Webster (knee), and DT Chris Canty (knee) are out. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankles and foot), WR Mario Manningham (shoulder), G Rich Seubert (knee), DE Justin Tuck (knee) are questionable. QB Eli Manning (foot), WR Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) and DT Fred Robbins (lower leg) are probable.

Vikings -- DT Jimmy Kennedy (thumb) is doubtful. TE Visanthe Shiancoe (thigh) and DT Pat Williams (elbow) are questionable. S Eric Frampton (ankle), G Steve Hutchinson (shoulder), C John Sullivan (knee), and CB Antoine Winfield (foot) are probable.

WATCH THIS: If you can't play for the playoffs, then play for stats. That's kind of what this game is all about, because Eli Manning, Steve Smith, and Hakeem Nicks have milestones in their sights. "Yeah they mean something," Manning said. "I want to make sure to get Steve his 100 catches. I take pride in having my receivers get that. I know Hakeem Nicks needs four to get 50 catches. That is something that is good for a rookie to get 50 catches in a season. In the long run that is not the most important thing, that’s not why you play the games, but still in this circumstance you try to get those things for your guys."

Smith, of course, has 97 catches and has already set the franchise record for single-season receptions by a lot. And Nicks, a big-play factor since he returned from an early-season injury, has 47 catches to rank him third among NFC rookie receivers. And Manning is just 120 yards away from his first 4,000-yard passing season. "I guess it is something," Manning said. "It’s not something that I was worried about or trying to get or wasn’t a goal at the beginning of the season. I guess it is something nice to know that you have done. To get 4,000 in a season is not easy and has been a big jump for me from last year and previous years. I guess it will be something nice to have."

Manning will have to engineer the capture of these numbers against a defense that has compiled 22 takeaways, fifth-highest in the league. And they've converted those into 92 points, eighth-most in the league.

The Vikings are also good against the run, not good news for a struggling running game playing without Brandon Jacobs. Ahmad Bradshaw won't be able to handle a full workload with his injuries, so expect to see Gartrell Johnson take a good number of carries. But it will be tough sledding against a run defense that has alloowed just three 100-yard individual rushing performances in the last 63 games. They had gone 36 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before Jonathan Stewart (of 206-yard fame against the Giants last week) hit them for 109 on Dec. 20.

The defense also ranks sixth in touchdown efficiency in the Red Zone, allowing just 17 in 39 penetrations. They're total Red Zone allowance of 167 points ranks seventh in the league.

The offensive line, featuring the Giants' only Pro Bowler in center Shaun O'Hara, will have to keep careful watch on defensive end Jared Allen, the NFL's second-leading sacker with 13 1/2. He's been a monster all year. Along with LBs E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway, who had a three-takeaway game Sept. 20 against Detroit, the threesome has been nearly impervious against the run.

CBs Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin lead a secondary that has just one interception in the last four games, and just 10 on the season. But the overwhelming pass rush has helped them immeasurably.

A Giants defense that hit its lowest point of a lowly season last week will be looking to rebound against the dynamic Brett Favre. Though he's strugged the past four games, Favre has had an outstanding season with 29 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions. Four of those have come in the last four games, however. Still, he must be regarded as warily as ever, and Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora will have to exert pressure from the edges to keep the still-mobile 40-year-old in the pocket. Pass pressure has been a problem all season, however. Give Favre time, and he'll undoubtedly find Sidney Rice (77 catches for 1,200 yards and six TDs), Percy Harvin (53 catches, 731 yards, six catches) and former Giants TE Visanthe Shiancoe (49-472-10) for some major damage.

An even bigger concern in light of last week's 247-yard rushing performance by the Panthers is Adrian Peterson. He may be fumble prone, having lost six of seven this year, but he can eat up huge chunks of yardage, too. He already has 1,329 yards and 17 touchdowns on 305 carries, a 4.4-yard per carry average. And he catches the ball out of the backfield, too, as his 42 receptions for 435 yards indicates. DT Fred Robbins has been a liability against the run up the middle, and Mathias Kiwanuka and Tuck have only been mediocre on the outside. Despite their up-tick against the run right after Kiwanuka was given the starting job over Umenyiora following the Denver game, the Giants reversion to their old form and the fact that they haven't faced a running back with the power, speed, and production of Peterson does not bode well for them.

The rookie Harvin is also one of the league's top kickoff returnmen, with a 27.5-yard average and two touchdowns, one of which went for 101 yards. Domenik Hixon had a solid season, but didn't put up anywhere near the numbers Harvin did. Ryan Longwell has missed just one field goal this year inside of 40 yards. Neither Longwell nor the Giants' Lawrence Tynes get their kickoffs to the goal line with any great consistency, so both teams will have chances to return for good field position.

PREDICTION: They'll play better than last week. But that's not saying much. Quitting on a game means hitting rock bottom, and the Giants are there. Obviously, coming up from there doesn't necessarily translate into victory. The Vikings have a lot to play for here, and there won't be any letup from their end. The Giants will try, but things could get ugly quickly. Vikings 28-14.

EP

6 comments:

  1. Rest the injured players, take the loss and move up in the draft. Pride won't help against this team. Their recent struggles have little meaning against the Giants. Denver on Thanksgiving proved that.

    As much as I hate to say it I hope the D gets lit up, just to drive the final nail into Sheridans tenure as DC.

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  2. I agree with GiantDevil...
    I'd rather be a few spots higher in the draft!

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  3. I hope Nicks and Smith get those catches because they deserved it.

    I also hope the Giants play spoiler on Sunday. Might as well mess up another team's chances.

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  4. Ernie - I think that your next big post should be - who are the top 5 candidates to be the Giant's defensive coordinator next year?

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  5. I would basically fire the whole team and apply for an expansion team licensee. Harry Carson could not have been more correct. Hopefully TC leaves these clowns in the rest of the game as Favre puts up 60. What an F...ing embarrassment. END RANT

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  6. It will be great to watch Minnesota Vikings, i have bought tickets from
    http://ticketfront.com/event/Minnesota_Vikings-tickets looking forward to it.

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